Publication year: 2011
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 22 January 2011

John, Robinson , Sarah, Burch , Sonia, Talwar , Meg, O'Shea , Mike, Walsh

This paper describes recent progress in the utilization of participatory scenario-based backcasting approaches to sustainability research that blend quantitative and qualitative analyses in order to explore alternative climate change futures, as undertaken in a range of academic, government, and private sector projects in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada.

These projects reveal that buy-in to policy proposals may be enhanced by participation, but there is a risk of participants being overwhelmed by the complexity of the choices they are being asked to make. Furthermore, tools are grounded in a process, which must itself be the explicit focus of attention...

Research Highlights: ► Second order backcasting is explicitly normative and participant-led. ► It facilitates social learning about consequences of initial preferences. ► It may enhance our ability to explore complex, uncertain, and value-laden issues. ► Frontier of backcasting is increasingly participatory and makes use of visual tools. ► Possible tradeoff between number of people engaged and depth of discussion/learning.